Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

And, while most pollsters had predicted a narrowing margin between Harris and Trump in the popular vote, almost all showed ...

The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

Polls taken before Election Day did pretty well. Pollsters got close to the mark in races for president and senate, which is ...

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

As polls open on Tuesday, election forecasts show that the race is neck and neck. According to pollster Nate Silver's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the ...

“Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” ...

Trump not only won in the Electoral College, but he won so big that he expanded his coalition with historic demographic ...

But Trump did not see those declines. He went up in all three regions. 8. The polls underestimated Trump’s support again, but ...

"We should probably just have a Constitutional amendment that says a president can't be older than 75 on Inauguration Day," Silver wrote.