Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted ...

As polls open on Tuesday, election forecasts show that the race is neck and neck. According to pollster Nate Silver's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the ...

On Thursday morning, Trump's probability of winning was 63% or higher on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, and two major ...

The polls weren’t off that much in capturing a near-uniform swing in very close states. But they underestimated the Trump ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...

After 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day, Americans will get their first look at exit polls, which could offer early intel ...

Polls taken before Election Day did pretty well. Pollsters got close to the mark in races for president and senate, which is ...

These two things are true about the presidential race: The polls currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

We’ve rounded up polls of likely voters conducted by major polling institutions in the 2018 and 2024 U.S. Senate races, as aggregated by the political data news outlet FiveThirtyEight ...

Despite pulling into the lead in two recent polls, Kari Lake still trails Ruben Gallego in polling averages and betting odds.