President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? Flip a coin. The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing ...
Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...
How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years ...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
That's why we do things like publish ratings of pollster accuracy and transparency and make complex election forecasting ...
ToplineVice President Kamala Harris inched ahead of former President Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins in both polling ...